불완전 금융시장하에서 기술보증을 통한 정책금융이 중소기업 성과에 미치는 효과 -분위회귀분석에 의한 처리효과 추정방법론의 응용-

In this paper, we estimate the causal effect of technology-based guarantee on the financial performances of SMEs (small and medium-sized enterprises) under imperfect capital market using the quantile regression with difference-in-differences parameters. Using the data merged from KED (Korean enterprise data) and KIBO, we find that the technology-based guarantees played a significant role of resolving the information asymmetry problems in the financial markets for SMEs. Moreover, the technology-based guarantees improved the under-performing SMEs in financial and accounting perspectives to both statistical and economic margins. The effects, however, turns out to be limited for the well-performing SMEs. The findings in this paper provide a few policy implications for the technology-based credit guarantee programs. First, the technology-based credit guarantees need to be provided to the firms whose financial status are poor temporarily. Second, it is necessary to curtail the provisions of the technology-based credit guarantees to the firms whose financial performances are relatively good. Those firms need to be directed into private financial markets for the efficacy and efficiency of fiscal expenditures.