우리나라 주요 지역 주택가격의 요인분석: 공통요인의 식별을 중심으로

In this paper, we examine whether multiple unobserved common factors in Korea's major 25 regions' housing purchase and jeonse prices can be identified by city-level house prices. By doing this, we investigate if there exist any leader-regions as the important origins of the Korea's house price comovements. According to the empirical findings, there are no leader-regions in the pre-Asian Crisis period, However, Seoul-Kangnam, Cheonan, and Kwangju regions can be identified as the unobserved common factors of the regional housing purchase prices while Seoul-Kangbuk is the leader-region of regional housing jeonse prices in the post-Asian Crisis period. This finding implies that it is unlikely that non-Seoul-Kangnam regions' housing purchase prices has a long-run relationship with Seoul-Kangnam's purchase price. Rather, regional housing purchase prices are likely to comove with the regional leaders' purchase prices. In addition, we study if main macro variables such as an interest rate and industrial production can be identified as the unobserved common factors of the housing purchase and jeonse prices. The result shows that only the interest rate can be identified as the third common factor of the regional housing purchase prices. Therefore, leading regions' housing prices together with fundamental economic variables should be seriously considered in Korea's housing price forecasting works.