성범죄 집행유예 기준과 13세이상 피해자대상 강제추행범죄(상해없음)의 적합성 평가

The purpose of this paper is to describe and examine the significant factors on in-out decision(suspended sentence) for forcibly molesting without injury against victims over age 13. The data were obtained from the Prosecutorial guideline System (PGS) of the Supreme Prosecution Service in Korea. Based on the PGS data archive, 1131 available cases of forcible molesting against women(over age 13) sentenced from July 1st, 2009 to June 4th, 2012 were collected. Due to a characteristic of binary variable for dependent variable(in-out decision), logistic regression was mainly employed. The results contain the frequency of in-out decision(suspended sentence) factors and the likelihood to be sentenced a suspension of sentence for forcible molesting against women victims over age 13. The finding showed the factors such as planned crime, a criminal record, alcoholic or drug addiction, and lack of social bond were very significant to predict a possibility of in-out decision. For the least criminal group who received less than 24 months, whether the crime was the accident was a deciding factor more significant than others. In addition to the result for empirical research, this paper indicates the issue of principle of proportionality in the guidelines for the suspended sentence in terms of criminal law. The detailed policy implications derived from the result of empirical research will be discussed in the context.