소비자 심리가 부동산가격에 미치는 영향에 관한 실증연구

This study aims to conduct the empirical analysis on the impact of consumer sentiment on the housing market by using time-series analysis methodology. As for the consumer sentiment for housing, the consumer sentiment index for housing sales market was utilized, whereas the housing sales price was set by the sales price index. As for the time range, the monthly data from January 2012 to March 2014 was utilized, whereas the spatial range was sub-divided into nationwide, Seoul and non-Capital area. As a result of analyzing the impulse response, the sales price and consumer sentiment index as to the sales price impact displayed a positive (+) reaction in all the regions. In addition, the sales price as to the impact of consumer sentiment index displayed a positive (+) reaction in nationwide and Seoul, whereas it displayed a positive (+) reaction at the initial phase but later displayed a weak negative (-) reaction. It is believed that the reason why the size of reaction in Seoul was found to be larger than the other regions was because it was performing the role of investment goods that would be affected more significantly by psychological factors as compared with the other regions. As a result of this study, it was possible to find out that the consumer sentiment as to housing, in other words, the intention for purchase, had a large impact on housing sales price. Thus, the result thereof indicates that the consumer sentiment index can be leveraged as an important variable as to the changes of real estate market in the Korean real-estate market as well. Also, it implies that consumer sentiment and intention for purchase should be taken into consideration for analyzing the real-estate market going forward.