경기와 유동성이 자영업자의 신용카드 연체율에 미치는 영향 : 카드 매출 데이터를 활용하여

This study analyzes how the business cycle and liquidity affect the credit quality of self-employed merchants utilizing sales data from Shinhan Card merchants and credit data from Korea Credit Bureau. Merchants are classified by sales volume, changes in the sales volume, multiple and over indebtedness, and multiple regression analysis is conducted for each group. The results can be summarized as follows. First, merchants with a lower sales volume are more sensitive to the business cycle and liquidity changes, with those who've undergone a decrease in sales being more easily affected in the same level of sales volume. Second, merchants with multiple loans from three or more lenders appear sensitive. However, the smaller the volume is, the more sensitive they are. Third, heavily indebted merchants with a high DTI ratio are relatively more sensitive to the business cycle regardless of sales volumes. Meanwhile, merchants with a low sales volume are also swayed by liquidity changes. This is the first study that shows how the effect of the business cycle and liquidity on the credit quality is different depending on the merchants' characteristics. It is expected that this study will give implications for policy making to reduce the procyclicality of the consumer credit market as well as manage risk of self-employed business owners.