수익비용대응 수준과 미래이익의 정보효과
The Matching Level and Information Effect of Future Earnings
이현주(영남대학교); 정현욱(영남대학교)
56권 2호, 37~63쪽
초록
본 연구는 수익비용대응 수준이 높은 기업의 미래성과에 대한 회계이익의 정보효과는 수익비용대응 수준이 낮은 기업의 미래성과에 대한 회계이익의 정보효과보다 높을 것이라는 가설을 설정하고 Collins et al.(1994)과 Tucker and Zarowin(2006)이 제시한 미래이익반응계수 모형을 이용하여 실증분석을 수행하였다. 본 연구의 가설은 수익비용대응 수준이 높아질수록 회계이익의 질은 개선되고, 회계이익의 정보효과는 증가한다고 보고한 선행연구에 근거하여 설정하였다. 2002-2009년 기간 동안 수익비용대응 수준과 미래 기대이익을 측정할 수 있는 유가증권시장 상장기업 3,583개(기업-년)를 대상으로 실증분석한 결과, 수익비용대응 수준과 미래이익 간의 교호변수는 유의한 양(+)의 부호를 가지는 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 Tucker and Zarowin(2006)이 제시한 통제변수를 포함한 추가분석에서도 가설과 일관된 결과를 제시하였다. 이는 수익비용대응 수준이 높아질수록 회계이익의 질이 개선됨에 따라, 미래성과에 대한 회계이익의 정보효과가 증가되는 것으로 해석할 수 있다. 수익비용대응 수준이 미래성과에 대한 회계이익의 정보효과를 나타내는 미래이익반응계수에 체계적인 영향을 미친다는 것은 수익비용대응 수준이 미래이익을 예측함에 중요한 요인이 될 수 있다는 시사점을 제공한다. 그리고 수익비용대응 수준이 회계정보의 가치관련성을 가진다는 점에서 회계정보이용자의 의사결정에 유용한 정보를 제공하는 한 가지 원천이 된다는 시사점을 제공한다.
Abstract
This study investigates whether the matching level is associated with the information effect of future earnings(Future Earnings Response Coefficient, hereafter ‘FERC’). Dichev and Tang(2008) reports that poor matching induces noise, increases earnings volatility, and decreases earnings persistence. In this respect, prior studies related with the matching level suggest that high-matching level results in high-earnings quality. In the respect, we use a new approach to examine relationship between the matching level and FERC. Paek(2011b) reports that good matching level is related with high earnings quality. Roh and Lee(2012) suggests that poor matching level contain more noise than good matching level. So. Roh(2013) reports that poor matching level decreases analysts' forecast accuracy. This result means that poor matching induces information asymmetric. And this result also indicates that investors have difficulty predicting future earnings in case of poor matching level. Haw et al.(2012) suggests that high earnings quality is associated with high FERC. Prior studies on FERC also report that high-voluntary disclosure, income smoothing, management forecast and financial statement comparability contain more information about future earnings(Gelb and Zarowin 2002; Tucker and Zarowin 2006; Choi et al. 2011; Choi et al. 2013). These streams of research, taken together, suggest that high earnings quality induces high FERC. In particular, we predict a positive association between matching level and FERC. We measure matching level(Adj.R2) by estimating the contemporaneous relation between revenues and expenses(Paek 2011b). The hypothesis is tested by using sample firms listed on the Korean Stock Exchange from the year of 2002 to the year of 2009 inclusively. Using the approach of Tucker and Zarowin(2006), we find that the changes in the current stock price of higher-matching level contain more information about their future earnings than the changes in the stock price of lower-matching level. Thus, Estimated matching level based on historical data may play a role in the prediction of future earnings. In addition we performed additional measure on matching level(Adj.R2) to control auto-correlation. After measuring re-matching level. we re-examine additional test on our hypothesis. The results of the additional test report that the changes in the current stock price of higher-matching level contain more information about their future earnings than the changes in the stock price of lower-matching level. This study contributes to the matching level and FERC literature by providing empirical evidence on the relation between the matching level and FERC. And the results of this study suggest the following implications. First, the matching level affects earnings quality differentially. Second, investors recognize the impact of the matching level on FERC. Lastly, the matching level influences investor’s portfolio selection decisions. The results also may help policy makers better understand how the matching level affects expectation about future earnings of investor.
- 발행기관:
- 한국공인회계사회
- 분류:
- 회계학