로열티 포인트 사용행동과 고객생애가치(Customer Lifetime Value) 분석

The main objective of this research is to investigate whether the RFM (recency-frequency-monetary value) informationof a customer’s redemption behavior of loyalty points can improve the prediction of future value of thecustomer. The conventional measurement of customer value has been primarily based on purchase transactions behavioralthough a customer’s future behavior can be also influenced by other interactions between the customer and thefirm such as redemption of rewards in a loyalty program. We theorize why a customer’s redemption behavior caninfluence her future purchases and thereby the customer’s total value based on operant learning theory, goal gradienthypothesis, and lock-in effect. Using a dataset from a major book store in Korea spanning three years between 2008and 2010, we analyze both purchase transactions and redemption records of over 10,000 customers. The results showthat the redemption-based RFM information does improve the prediction accuracy of the customer’s future purchases. Based on this result, we also propose an improved estimate of customer lifetime value (CLV) by combining purchasetransactions and loyalty points redemption data. Managerial implications will be also discussed for firms managingloyalty programs to maximize the total value customers.