A Development of Hotel Bankruptcy Prediction Model on Artificial Neural Network

This paper develops a bankruptcy prediction model on an Artificial Neural Network for hotelmanagement. A bankruptcy prediction model has a specific feature to predict a bankruptcy of the wholehotel business after evaluate bankruptcy possibility on the basis of business performance data of eachbranch. here are many traditional statistical models for bankruptcy prediction such as MultivariateDiscriminant Analysis or Logit Analysis. However, we chose Artificial Neural Network because the methodhas accuracy rates of prediction better than those of other methods. We first selected 100 goodenterprises and 100 bankrupt enterprises as experimental data and set up a bankruptcy prediction modelby use of a tool for Artificial Neural Network, NeuroShell. The model and its experiments, which demonstrated high efficiency, can certainly provide great help in decision making in the field of hotelmanagement and in deciding on the bankruptcy or financial solidity of each branch of serviced residence hotel.