경영자이익예측공시 유형에 따른 차별적 시장반응과 예측정확성

Under the Fair Disclosure system, the voluntary disclosure of management earnings forecasts is one of major accounting events to influence the market response on stock prices, which has been tested by researchers in various ways. Management earnings forecasts, however, have been challenged from local mass media and investors, as some forecasted management earnings significantly deviate from actual earnings numbers. To address the market concern, the Korea Exchange, as a market supervisor, adopted the best practice guideline of the management earnings forecasts. We find that no research has tested the effectiveness of the best practice guideline by the regulator. This motivates us to examine the effectiveness of the best practice guideline. In order to test the effectiveness of the regulatory guideline on the management earnings forecasts, we review whether the compliance of the best practice guideline leads the difference in the market response and the ex-post forecasting accuracy of the management earnings forecast. Our test result shows that the capital market of Korea is indifferent at the compliance of the regulatory best practice guideline of management earnings forecasts. In addition, the market does not show any meaningful difference of the ex-post forecasting accuracy in management earnings forecasts. The outcome implies that market supervisors may need to revisit the supervisory policy of the management earnings forecasts, questioning the effectiveness of the current regulatory regime on the management earnings forecasts. Our research contributes to the literature by providing insights on the policy making of the management earning forecasts. This study also provides insights into the duplication effect of the market response, when the disclosure of the management earnings forecasts coincides with other earnings events. The research method taken in the paper will help a future research to measure the pure market response without the duplication effect.