금융위기 이후 경상수지 흑자 확대의 원인 분석 및 향후 전망

This paper studies determinants of current account balance of payments at each time point through the historical decomposition method based on the structural VAR model. According to the impulse response function estimates, current account balance responds significantly to domestic demand and REER shocks but insignificantly to world trade volume shocks. Meanwhile, the historical decomposition of causes of shocks to current account balance reveals that Korea’s large current account surpluses since the Global Financial Crisis are largely driven by weakening domestic demand and improving terms of trade. It is on the other hand found that REER and world trade volume shocks have caused little effect on the rise in Korea’s current account surpluses. It is projected that Korea’s current account surpluses will continue but will be smaller gradually, which should be understood as a natural process in the sense that the current account balance measures the difference between national income and domestic demand. Hence, it is recommended that macroeconomic policy stance responding to changes in current account surpluses should be coordinated cautiously, but not in an overly sensitive manner.