은행주도 자본유입 구성변화, 금융위기와 금융감독 취약성

When Korean economy suffered currency crisis and financial crisis due to lack of foreign currency liquidity, net foreign liabilities at domestic commercial banks surged. Thus, through Granger Causality analysis, we found the following: “changes in domestic commercial banks’ net foreign liabilities ⇒ changes in trade balance”, “changes in domestic commercial banks’ net short-term foreign liabilities => changes in trade balance”, and “changes in domestic commercial banks’ net foreign liabilities => changes in foreign exchange rates”. This indicates that the foreign liabilities portfolio at commercial banks is an important leading indicator of macro economy and thus should be examined closely by the government when deciding economic stabilization policy. However, even though Korea is non-vehicle currency nation, Korean politicians and scholars did not consider important risk factors within capital balance during the past financial crisis. Now Korean policy makers and regulators should place greater emphasis on the commercial banks foreign debt maturity than foreign securities investment and should take measures in terms of the paradigm of ‘good supervision’. ‘Good supervision’ tends to be proportional to the income level of each country, but the execution and the achievement depends on regulators’ “willingness” and “ability” to act.