국가 간 자본이동과 대외부채의 누적이 경상수지의 지속가능성에 미치는 영향

This article focuses on a chronic deficit of current account, and an accumulation of external debt, which comes from that deficit. That is, this article verifies the consolidation of current account deficit and the appropriation of external debt, as follows; if an accumulation of external debt from the chronic deficit of current account is unavoidable, then is such the debt effective on improving the current account deficit? Has each country the ability to repay the debt? And has the accumulation of external debt a negative impact on the components of current account, such as gross investment, household consumption, and government expenditure?For this purpose, this article estimates the sustainability of current deficit account by the model of Milesi-Ferretti and Razin(1996) and the level of improving or worsening current account deficit from accumulating external debt, using the panel data from OECD countries with 21 years from 1990 to 2010. And it estimates the sustainability of current deficit account under the situation of capital flow by the model of Aristovnik(2006). Finally this paper estimates the impacting level on the components of current account such as gross investment, household consumption, and government expenditure by the model of Bulut(2009). According to my results, the current account deficit level of twin deficit countries, which suffer from fiscal deficit and current account deficit at the same time, is excessive whereas the level of non deficit countries is sustainable. And cpital flow has a significant effect to current account deficit by affecting on external debt. Also, an increase of external debt in last period aggravates current account in this period, especially in twin deficit countries, and the negative effect on gross investment, household consumption, and government expenditure occurs in almost every country.