포스트 2020 기후변화 협정을 위한 국제사회의 대응 - 코펜하겐에서 바르샤바 까지 -

The international climate change regime comprises principally of the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the 1997 Kyoto Protocol and the decisions of Parties under these instruments. Although these instruments are important towards addressing climate change and its impacts, they are widely regarded as inadequate and inadequately implemented. At the Durban conference, 2011, Parties launched a process to negotiate a climate agreement that will come into effect and be implemented from 2020. This process, the Ad-Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action(ADP), is intended to craft the agreement that will govern, regulate and induce to the next generation of climate actions. The international community has, since Durban, engaged in intense negotiations, and the Parties at the Doha conference 2012 agreed to consider ‘elements for a draft negotiating text’ no later than the Lima conference 2014, ‘with a view to making available a negotiating text before May 2015.’The 2015 agreement is likely to be shaped by the resolution Parties arrive at on three conflicting main issues. Firstly, whether the agreement will be ‘top-down’ or ‘bottom-up’ or hybrid version of the two; Secondly, the nature and extent of the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities; Lastly, the legal form, whether the 2015 new agreement will be legally binding, and if yes, which elements of 2015 package will be in the legally binding instrument and which elements will be in non-binding complementary decisions. Even though it must be no easy goal, there is a possibility the phrase ‘agreed outcome with legal force’ could be interpreted to be a kind of legal instruments under the convention, such as protocols, amendments and amendment to annexes.