Hospitality기업의 애널리스트 이익예측능력 검증

The primary purpose of this research is to empirically investigate the forecasting ability of financial analyst who issues research report about the hospitality companies listed on the KOSPI and the KOSDAQ market. The financial analysts’ earnings forecast data is based on the FN-Guide and KIS-VALUE forecasts of annual earnings D/B from 2005 to 2014 during 10years period. To test research hypotheses, we adopted an equality of coefficient test method suggested by Jennings(1990). To study the effects of prior period operating cash flows and accruals on current earnings forecast, we performed multiple regressions of earnings forecasts on prior period operating cash flows, total accruals, discretionary accruals and non-discretionary accruals. A positive (negative) coefficient on any of the independent variables suggests over-weighting(under-weighting). The overall result is summarized as follows. Financial analysts attached the different weight to operating cash flows(discretionary accruals) and total accruals(non-discretionary accruals) and also weighted total accruals(non-discretionary accruals) information more than operating cash flows(discretionary accruals). This result means that financial analysts are able to discriminate between operating cash flows(discretionary accruals) and total accruals(non-discretionary accruals) components embedded in earnings. The results are expected to enhance investors’ understanding of the analysts’ earnings forecast characteristics and give more accurate beliefs about the future performance of Korean hospitality companies.