역사적 신제도주의 시각에서 바라본 신용보증제도의 변화: 경로의존 및 경로진화 모형의 적용을 중심으로

This paper examines the changes of Credit Guarantee Schemes of each period through historical new institutionalism, a theory that analyzes the systematic developments within the time frame of “history,” based on a simple logic that economic recessions lead to guarantee expansion, while economic recoveries yield guarantee reduction. The results have verified that Path-Dependency model cannot accurately describe the changes in Credit Guarantee Schemes for any given time periods. The analysis on Credit Guarantee Schemes through Path Evolution model yields the following results: first, the establishment of credit guarantee institution is “Conversion,” and the institutional change during the introductory period of a Credit Guarantee Scheme is “Layering”; second, the growth period is “Layering”; third, the stabilizing period is “Drift”; fourth, the recovery from the Asian currency crisis is “Layering”; fifth, the adjusting period is “Drift”; and sixth, the recovery from the global financial crisis is “Layering.” Considering the changing trends of Credit Guarantee Schemes, such transitions may likely be explained with layering and drift : The former exhibits a better explanatory power than latter.