제조업에서 업무상사고 사망과 재해율 예측에 관한 연구

The evaluation of the industrial accident rate and fatal accident rate is very important in order to prevent the accidents in the industry fields systematically. This paper considers forecasting of the accident rate and fatal accident rate through quantitative time serious analysis methods in manufacturing industry. Therefore, this paper describes the optimal accident rate and fatal accident rate through minimization the sum of square errors (SSE) with existing accident rate data in manufacturing industry. In this paper, MFC (Microsoft Foundation Class) software of Visual Studio 2008 was used to predict the accident rate and the fatal accident rate. In the case of the final analysis results, the values to minimize SSE are 0.0647 and 0.0575 in the accident rate and fatal accident rate, respectively. Especially, the auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and regression model are ideally applied, respectively. Finally, the results of this paper provide decisive information in order to prevent industrial accidents in manufacturing industry very easily.