한국의 인바운드 및 아웃바운드 관광수요의 변동성 분석

Volatility models are used to investigate the conditional volatility and an analysis of volatility is crucial for estimating the effects of shocks in international tourism demand. Thus the purpose of this study is to examine the volatility of the tourism demand by distinguishing between the inbound and outbound tourists in Korea. The month data were used inbound tourists and outbound tourists in Korea from 1998 to 2014, and the GARCH(Generalised Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity), GJR-GARCH, APARCH, and FIAPARCH were employed the empirical analysis. On the basis of findings of the research, frist, the long-memory property on the volatility was existed on the inbound and outbound tourism demand. This means that the effect of increase or decrease in tourism demand persists for a long time. Then, long-memory property was existed the more strongly inbound than outbound. Second, FIAPARCH model which is considered long-memory feature was identified as the best model among the models. Thrid, the volatility cluster was reveled in the movement of inbound and outbound tourism demands. This means that the periods of big volatility or small volatility were continued. Last, the asymmetric effects on the demand of inbound tourists were presented in this study. This means that a decrease in unexpected foreign tourist (bad news) increases the more larger volatility of foreign tourist. However the demand of outbound tourist has no asymmetric effect. The findings of this results can provide the marketing implications for the tourism industries, such as airlines and outbound tour agency.