신용보증 공급에 영향을 미치는 내·외부변수 탐색: 공공금융서비스(지역신용보증재단)를 중심으로

In this paper we examined the effect of the various variables affecting the guarantee supply. This analysis will provide a practical data for the operation of credit guarantee system in the CGFs(Public Finance Service). We use the data published by the Bank of Korea and the warranty data(from 2000.1. to 2014.12.) From multiple regression analysis, we find the following facts. In first step, we can find that the internal factors of the CGFs(Public Finance Service) is normalcy of default amount, therefore, it is expected that the higher normalcy of default amount of insured damage, the guarantee supply is further magnified. In the second step, it is shown that the macroeconomic variables such as bankrupt companies, CD secondary/sales margin rate, unemployment rate affect the guarantee supply. Also we find that as the number of bankrupt companies and the rate of unemployment increase, and the rate of CD secondary/sales margin decreases, the guarantee supply increase. In the final step taking all variables of the CGFs(Public Finance Service) and the macro-economy into account, the guarantee supply is also expected to the increased as the number of bankrupt companies and the rate of CD secondary/sales margin decrease. In terms of the CGFs(Public Finance Service)’s risk management, this research is expected to contribute to reducing unnecessary loss by identify.