우즈베키스탄의 탈사회주의 체제전환과 대외무역: 점진주의적 이행의 증거?

The aim of this study is to analyze the transformation strategy and policy of Uzbekistan in the economic transition process, and to grope for the implications of so-called Uzbek paradoxical growth and foreign trade in the economic transformation path. As a result, the Uzbek economic transformation can be categorized as a type of gradual and restrictive outward-opening from the perspective of speed & sequence on the basis of system transformation path model, which may possibly be evaluated as a case of successful gradualism like China as well. In a concrete way, the experience of the Uzbek successful transition comprises a economic recovery and stability in the 1990s during the early period of transition, and then robust economic growth in 2000s and until quite recently. But, in fact the Uzbek economic performance can be said to achieved by economic initial conditions(rich natural resource endowment and favorable international price to resource export) and centralized economic policy(market control and import substitution industrialization policy) with institutional initial conditions, that is the legacies of centrally planned economic system in Soviet era. Therefore, when only depending on economic conditions(natural resources and international market price) and self-sufficiency from external shock, there could be a risk of overestimation to the Uzbek real performance. In that sense it may turn out that the Uzbek growth puzzle or the Uzbek paradox without structural reform conclude to the Uzbek disguised growth paradox in the long run. For sustaining economic growth substantial reform moves is needed in Uzbekistan. If progressive liberalization and privatization are delayed, and it will make the prospect of the Uzbek successful transition so gloomy.