최고경영자 교체유형에 따른 차별적 시장반응에 관한 연구
A Study on the Market Reaction Associated with Type of CEO Turnover
곽영민(울산대학교)
24권 5호, 317~355쪽
초록
본 연구는 경영자교체에 따른 시장반응이 교체형태에 따라 차별적인 양상을 보이는가를 실증적으로 검증한다. 구체적으로 최고경영자 교체시점을 전・후한 시장반응이 전임경영자의 퇴임유형(자발적 교체 vs. 강제적 교체)과 신임경영자의 승계형태(내부승진 vs. 외부영입)를 결합한 4가지 형태의 교체유형에 따라 어떻게 달라지는지를 살펴보았다. 이를 위해 2001년-2013년까지의 기간 동안 최고경영자를 교체한 367개의 기업-연도 표본을 대상으로 교체공시 시점을 전・후한 비정상수익률의 변화추이가 경영자 교체유형에 따라 차이를 보이는가를 사건연구 방법과 횡단면 회귀분석을 통해 검증한다. 주요한 분석결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 먼저, 경영자 교체유형을 구분하지 않았을 경우 경영자교체에 따른 유의미한 시장반응이 관찰되지 않았으나 경영자의 교체유형을 전임경영자의 퇴임유형과 신임경영자의 영입유형을 고려하여 구분하였을 경우에는 교체시점을 전・후한 시장반응이 각 교체유형별로 상이하게 존재하는 것으로 나타났다. 구체적으로 전임경영자가 자발적으로 퇴임하고 신임경영자가 내부에서 승진된 경우에는 교체에 따른 시장반응이 관찰되지 않았으나 전임경영자가 자발적으로 퇴임하고 외부에서 신임경영자가 영입된 경우에는 교체시점에 통계적으로 유의한 양(+)의 시장반응이 관찰된다. 또, 전임경영자가 강제 퇴임된 상황에서는 신임경영자가 내부에서 영입되었을 때는 유의미한 음(-)의 시장반응이 이에 반해 외부에서 영입된 경우에는 유의미한 양(+)의 시장반응이 각각 관찰되었다. 이는 경영자교체에 대해 시장이 획일적인 반응을 보이는 것이 아니라 전임경영자의 퇴임과 신임경영자의 승계유형이 어떠한 조합을 이루느냐에 따라 최고경영자 교체에 대한 시장의 기대가 차별적으로 형성되고 있음을 제시한다. 또한, 상술한 결과는 경영자교체의 내생성을 통제한 2단계 회귀분석 결과에서도 재차 확인되었다. 끝으로 건전한 기업지배구조가 경영자교체에 관한 정보비대칭을 완화하고 이해관계자의 이익과 합치되는 방향으로 교체에 관한 의사결정을 유도함으로써 경영자교체에 따른 시장반응에 긍정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다.
Abstract
A change in executive leadership is a significant event in the life of a firm. This paper investigate the reaction of the Korean stock market to announcements of a change in the chief executive officer (CEO). The concern for stockholders is whether CEO replacement will influence the company’s stock value. However, the market reaction associated CEO turnover differ depending on the type of CEO turnover that would provide differential expectation about changes in current and future firm performance and changes in investing, operating, and financing policies. For Example, a forced turnover occurs when the stakeholder is dissatisfied with the existing CEO. If the stakeholder wishes to move the firm in a new directions and believes that the current CEO cannot perform the task, the board dismisses the CEO. This will be most common when the current business strategy is performing poorly, forcing the stakeholder to consider a successor CEO who is expected to take actions that include a combination of operating, investing, and financing policy changes. On the other hands, when a CEO voluntarily leave the firm, this event does not provide a signal to change firm strategy because voluntary turnover is not a stakeholder’s decision. Assuming that the market considers the different context between voluntary and forced turnover, market reaction surrounding CEO turnover is expected differently according to CEO turnover type. Therefore, to construct a powerful test of market reaction associated CEO turnovers, it is useful to identify types of CEO turnover. In this study, I propose quadruple classification of CEO turnovers based upon the joint types of departure of predecessor CEO and replacement by successor CEO. The four categories are characterized by peaceful departure succeeded by internally promoted new CEO, peaceful departure succeeded by externally recruited candidate, forced departure replaced by internal candidate, and forced departure accompanied by external replacement respectively. This study documents the differential market reaction according to CEO turnover under four different CEO turnover contexts for Korean listed company observations. The sample of this study covers firms from 2001 to 2013 listed on the Korea Stock Exchange market. Main analysis is to examine the market response using cumulative abnormal return (CAR) around CEO turnover announcements and to ascertain whether there are different market reactions across CEO turnover type or not. Main findings can be summaries as follows. First, market reaction associated CEO turnover is positive and significant for outside appointments but insignificant for inside appointment when the incumbent departs voluntarily. Second, the response of stock price on CEO turnover announcements is negatively significant for inside appointment but positively significant for outside appointment under forced succession. Third, After controlling for endogeneity of CEO turnover, I find evidence to support previous results based on standard event study methodology. Finally market reaction on CEO turnover tends to be affected by sound governance mechanism. These results suggest that each of these four categories represents differential context and circumstance so that market reaction are differently across CEO turnover type. The contribution of this study is as follows. First, this study provides the first comprehensive Korean evidence on the market reaction surrounding executive changes announcement by explicitly taking the differential contexts of CEO turnover along with the endogeneity issue associated with the firm performance and governance structure into account. Second, the results documented in this paper provide an important implication for diverse interest groups participating in the CEO turnover decisions and a logical underpinning on the relationship between the CEO turnover and stock price. By understanding the market response on CEO turnover in conjunction with specific contexts of CEO turnover, one can develop adequate intuition into circumstances surrounding certain types of CEO turnover, which will help various stakeholder groups to make proper judgement in selecting CEO and reviewing the effect of CEO turnover.
- 발행기관:
- 한국회계학회
- 분류:
- 회계학