노동소득분배율 변동의 총수요 효과 : 대안 지표 및 OECD국가와의 비교

We assess the growth regime of Korean economy (1975-2013) by estimating an ARDL(Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag) model for investigating the effects of fluctuations in labor share of income on the demand components of GDP. Evaluating the alternative labor share indicators adjusting sole proprietor's income based on the method of Gomme and Rupert(2004) and Gollin(2002), we focus on the differences between the alterative indicators and the official labor share from the National Account of Korea. Main empirical results are as follows. First, the alternative labor share exhibits significantly positive effects on aggregate GDP as well as consumption, investment, and export, which supports the wage-led growth regime, while the effects of the official labor share are mostly insignificant. Second, applying the same analysis on individual OECD countries, we find striking differences in the demand effects of labor share across countries. Finally, estimating the same model for OECD panel data, we find that labor share exhibits significantly negative effects on investment and export, contrary to the results for the Korean economy. The results indicate that the growth regime in Korea was strongly wage-led, in contrast with most OECD countries, and represent policy implications in favor of the applicability of the wage-led growth model in Korea. The results also suggest a caveat that heterogeneities across countries, e.g., the varying share of sole proprietor's income, should be carefully considered when the growth regime of an individual country is assessed.