풍력단지의 발전량 추계적 모형 제안에 관한 연구

Generation of electricity using wind power has received considerable attention worldwide in recent years mainly due to its minimal environmental impact. However, volatility of wind power production causes additional problems to provide reliable electricity to an electrical grid regarding power system operations, power system planning, and wind farm operations. Those problems require appropriate stochastic models for the electricity generation output of wind power. In this study, we review previous literatures for developing the stochastic model for the wind power generation, and propose a systematic procedure for developing a stochastic model. This procedure shows a way to build an ARIMA model of volatile wind power generation using historical data, and we suggest some important considerations. In addition, we apply this procedure into a case study for a wind farm in the Republic of Korea, Shinan wind farm, and shows that our proposed model is helpful for capturing the volatility of wind power generation.