전이함수 및 개입함수 모형을 활용한 한국의 공무원 인력규모 영향요인 분석

This study aims to figure out what are the factors affecting the Korean government employment size and how they affect that. It analyzed time series data on the government employment size from 1965 through to 2012 with transfer function model and intervention ARIMA model and could identify the political, economic, demographic and social factors affecting the government employment size, time and direction of the impacts. As a result of the analysis, it turned out that all the political, economic, demographic and social factors affected the government employment size, but the impact, time and direction differed depending on each major variable. First of all, regime change, one of the political factors, had a negative (-) effect on the immediate reduction of the government employment size, GDP per capita, an economic factor had a positive (+) effect on the government employment size, leaving two years apart, but unemployment rate had a negative (-) effect that brought about the immediate reduction of the number of government employees without a time lag. In the meantime, aged population over 65, one of demographic and social factors, turned out to have a positive (+) impact on the government employment size with a time lag of nine years, so it had a greater delay effect than other factors, as a result of the analysis. This study discusses theoretical and political implications of the results of the analysis as a conclusion.