일본의 엔화변동 사이클과 통화정책: 1988년 이후 현재까지

In this paper, we have examined Japanese yen behavior in real and nominal sense since 1988 until now in each sub-period, subdividing the whole sample period into multiple sub-periods according to the cycles of Japanese yen fluctuations. Japanese monetary policy is effective in changing the real exchange behavior in the short run through the change in the real interest rate. Facing the economic downturns, the Japanese monetary authority lowered the real interest rate, which resulted in the Japanese real yen depreciation, while facing economic upturns it increased the real interest rate, resulting in the Japanese yen real appreciation. This empirical result says that the Japanese monetary policy faced with economic downturns or upturns was successful in smoothing economic fluctuations. The other striking empirical evidence is that Japanese real yen depreciation was induced by the relative stagnant productivity of Japanese tradable sectors. During the whole sample period(the first quarter 1989-the fourth quarter of 2014), 1% fall of Japanese productivity of tradable goods relative to that of United States causes the bilateral(Japn versus U.S.) real yen to decrease by 0.3%. The relative stagnant Japanese economy to the U.S., accompanying the relative fall in the tradable goods’ productivity causes the Japanese real yen to depreciate, which helps recovering the troubled Japanese economy a little bit. To sum, Japanese monetary policy is effective in smoothing the business cycle, while the Japanese real yen deprecation due to the stagnant Japanese economy reltive to U.S. may be helpful in recovering the troubled economy.