인구고령화에 따른 음식숙박 소비지출 변화 분석

This paper analyzes the impacts of population aging on the food and accommodation expenditure using auto-regressive distributed lag model (ADL). By estimating dynamic food and accommodation consumption function, age-specific income and price elasticities are derived and the effects of population structure on the food and accommodation expenditure are investigated. Quarterly data from 1990 to 2015 for the consumption expenditure and relative price on the food and accommodation, disposable income, and age structure variable are used to estimation. In income elasticities estimation, the forties shows relatively high value 1.13. In contrast, the fifties and the above sixties show relatively low values 1.04 and 1.03 respectively. This result implies the population aging will function as a declining factor in the food and accommodation industry. Price elasticities are estimated to be the highest value -0.62 in the fifties, -0.13 in the forties, -0.09 in the sixties, and the lowest value -0.04 in the twenties and thirties. Recently increasing trend of food and accommodation relative price is predicted to reduce food and accommodation expenditure. Age structure affects food and accommodation consumption as an inverted U-shape. At the critical value 0.9 of the age structure variable, consumption effects changes from increase to decrease. In the seasonal effects, consumption effects of the spring is greater than those of the winter for all age groups. Facing with population aging, methodology of this paper can be useful to invent policy instruments in the food and accommodation industry.