제조업 일별 전력 사용량을 활용한 일일전력경기지수(DEBI) 개발

Electricity sales are directly measured from individual consumers, which could minimize the time gap between data collection and public announcement. Furthermore, industrial electricity sales are highly linked with production and output. Therefore, industrial electricity consumption can be used to track production and output in real time. By using the high-frequency data of industrial electricity sales, this study develops the daily electricity business index (DEBI) to capture the daily economic status. The steps used to formulate DEBI are as follows: (1)selection of the explanatory variables and period, (2) amendment of the seasonal adjustment to eliminate daily temperature and effective day effects, (3) estimation of the weighted value via variables by using PCA, (4) calculation of DEBI and commencement of validation tests. Our empirical analysis and the Hodrick–Prescott filter analysis show that DEBI is highly related to existing economic indices.