유발요인에 따른 회계이익과 과세소득의 차이가 재무분석가 이익예측에 미치는 영향

This paper examines the effect of book－tax differences(BTD) on the properties of analysts forecasts. Specifically, we investigate whether and how the tax information inherent in BTD affects analysts followings and their forecasts dispersion. Prior research reports that BTD can be used as a proxy for earnings management (Mills and Newberry 2001), earning persistence (Hanlon 2005), and future earnings growth (Lev and Nissim 2004). Tax planning which creates BTD can enhance the value of firms (Ayers et al. 2011；Wang 2010). As an information intermediary, analysts interpret pubic accounting information such as BTD to market participants. This study examines whether and how analysts use BTD information in earnings forecasts, using a sample of 2,232 firms during the period from 2001 to 2010. We find that there is negative (positive) relation between BTD and analysts followings (forecasts dispersion). These results suggest that the higher BTD firms have, the more difficulty analysts have in forecasting earnings and valuing firms. In addition, we partition BTD into an accounting component and a tax component, and test which component influences analysts forecasts. Only the tax component is significantly negatively (positively) associated with analysts followings (forecasts dispersion). This suggests that the effect of BTD on analysts is driven by the tax component. To summarize, BTD appears to discourage analyst followings and to increase analyst forecast dispersion, which deteriorate information environment in capital markets. These results suggest that policy makers need to improve the current reporting system regarding BTD to enhance the usefulness of the public information.