한미 FTA 발효 전후 대미 수출입 변화에 관한 실증적 연구

This study is an empirical study on the effects between export volume and import volume around the South Korea–United States Free Trade Agreement in Korea. We examine the interdependence of the export volume and import volume around the South Korea–United States Free Trade Agreement in Korea for 82 monthly data from October 2008 to July 2015. We employ impulse response function based on VAR model as well as variance decomposition after unit root tests and cointegration test. The finding that many macro time series may contain a unit root has spurred the development of the theory of non-stationary time series analysis. Engle and Granger (1987) pointed out that a linear combination of two ro more non-stationary series may be stationary. If such a stationary linear combination exists, the non-stationary time series are said to be cointegrated. This research showed following main results. First, from basic statistic analysis, both export volume and import volume around the South Korea–United States Free Trade Agreement in Korea has unit roots, In addition, there is at least one cointegration among them. Lastly, we find that export volume and import volume around the South Korea–United States Free Trade Agreement in Korea does not Granger Cause export volume, oil price and exchange rate in Korea.