네트워크분석과 기술성장모형을 이용한 기술기획 : 증강현실 기술의 특허를 활용하여

As technologies’ life-cycle shortens and their development directions are uncertain, firms’ technology planning capability becomes increasingly important. Prior patent-based studies using technology growth curves identify developmental stages of technologies, thereby formulating technology development directions from an overallperspective. However, a technology generally consists of multiple sub-technologies and accordingly their development stages are likely various. In this regard, the prior studies failed to identify core sub-technologies and their specific development directions. Therefore, we suggest an approach consisting of 1) identifying core subtechnologies of a given technology using patent co-classifications and social network analysis, and 2) identifying each sub-technology’s development stage and thereby determining its further development direction. We apply our approach to patents related to augmented reality to examine its applicability. It is expected that our approach will help identify evolving development stages for the core sub-technologies of a given technology, thereby effectively assisting technology experts in technology planning processes.