기업의 도산확률과 회계이익 질과의 관계

Recent financial stability indicators using the accounting information, be conducted to determine the quality of accounting earnings. However, this indicators is not statistical data but metrics that uses to analyze the data. On the contrary, the probability of bankruptcy was statistical indicators to evaluate the company's financial status using the accounting information. So, the purpose of this study examines the relationship between the bankruptcy probability and earnings quality. The the bankruptcy probability can be calculated using two models of previous studies of bankruptcyl. One is altman's discriminant models and the other is ohlson's logit model. Both models are used usefully in practice and academia. The qualitys of accounting profit are measured by the size of conservatism and discretionary accrual. The sample consist of the firms listed on the korean stock exchange during 2010-2015 from KISVALUE program. The initial samples are 3422 firms but we include only 2033 firms except for the non-manufacturing, non fiscal year in December, missing data observations. As a result of the analysis, the discretionary accrual show positive relationship when the bankruptcy probability was high on the both model. And The higher the probability of bankruptcy, the conservatism has larger on the altman's model As a result, if conservatism measurement problem is improved, Using probability of bankruptcy were shown to assess quality of accounting profit. For this, this study verified whether the bankruptcy probability is useful for predicting the earnings quality. In the result, this paper extend that investors do not consider losses to be homogeneous on the pricing of losses. In assessing whether a loss is a good indicator of the likelihood of exercising the abandonment option, investors consider information beyond loss earnings.