결합 예측 기법을 이용한 간헐 수요에 대한 수요예측

In this research, we propose efficient demand forecasting scheme for intermittent demand. For this purpose, we first extensively analyze the drawbacks of the existing forecasting methods such as Croston method and Syntetos-Boylan approximation, then using these findings we propose the new demand forecasting method. Our goal is to develop forecasting method robust across many situations, not necessarily optimal for a limited number of specific situations. For this end, we adopt combining forecasting method that utilizes unbiased forecasting methods such as simple exponential smoothing and simple moving average. Various simulation results show that the proposed forecasting method performed better than the existing forecasting methods.