경영자 이익예측 구성항목 공시가 재무분석가 이익예측 정보에 미치는 영향

This paper investigates the relation between behaviors of analysts’ earnings forecasts when firms disclose the disaggregated earnings forecasts. Specifically, the disaggregated earnings forecasts(sales, operating income, and net income) are as the dependent variables to examine the impact on analysts’ earnings forecasts(forecast bias and forecast error). In this regard, prior literatures (Healy et al. 1999; Beyer et al. 2010; Verrecchia 2001; Lee and Yoo 2012) suggest that the disaggregated earnings forecasts are important role to alleviate information asymmetry as a means of communicating firms’ private information on future performance. However, all management’s earnings forecasts do not have a positive impact in order to evaluate firm value, because firms have an incentive to manage their earnings forecasts, in order to avoid a negative market reaction or litigation risks (Botosan 1997; Healy et al. 1999; Aboody and Kasznik 2000; Beyer et al. 2010; Kim and Yoo 2014). Thus, this paper focuses on the means of determinant factors to predict the credibility of management’s earnings forecasts. One of its characteristics is the disaggregated earnings forecasts. This paper examines the effect of disaggregated earnings forecasts on analysts’ earnings forecasts from 2002 to 2014. I find that the firms with disaggregating earnings forecasts are negatively associated with the bias and errors analysts’ earnings forecasts. This paper provides additional insights beyond those of prior literature (Hughes and Pae 2004; Hirst et al. 2007) by showing disaggregating information enhance perceived financial information quality. In addition to prior papers (Hughes and Pae 2004; Hirst et al. 2007), this paper have insight that the supplement disclosures on profit and loss items might enhance the ex－ante believability of external information users on accuracy of managerial earnings forecasts.