카르텔 손해액의 산정 문제: 계량경제학 방법론 논쟁의 시사점

This article considers the debates of methodology of econometrics between Tinbergen and Keynes, drawing possible lessons for cartel damages in the context of Korean antitrust law. In some cartel damage cases the Korean Supreme Court has ruled that the plaintiff must quantify the amount of damages with econometric analysis based on the but-for price test. Most economists as well as most lawyers seem agree with the Court’s ruling. Most economists have believed that the matter concerning cartel damages is only about technical methods rather than methodology. Indeed it seems that modern econometrics does not take the problem of methodology seriously. However, assumptions which multiple regression depends on are extremely restrictive and unreasonable, there still exists a fundamental question whether the but-for price really can be known from multiple regression. This article concludes that there is no grantee that we may obtain the but-for price with econometrics, quantifying cartel damages with multiple regression is just a kind of belief or myth rather than sound science.