구조적 오차수정모형을 이용한 전세 거래 비율에 영향을 미치는 요인 분석: 서울특별시 강남 지역을 중심으로

This paper analyzed how do asset price variables and macroeconomic variables effect rates of lease trading on house, centrically district south of the Han River using structural vector error correction model. The purpose of this study is to understand the housing market in terms of the ratio of lease transactions and to examine its implications. In this study, data were used from January 2011 to May 2016, and the selection of analytical variables was based on the analysis of clusters and the cross correlation coefficient according to the proposal of Sa-ngasoongsong, Bukkapatnam(2012). As a result, the variables affecting the rates of lease transaction are the sale price index of two districts, real interest rate, and household loan. The estimation results of SVECM are summarized as follows: First, As a result of the cointegrated vector estimation for the variables, two long-term equilibrium relationships exist. Second, in south district, the rates of lease transaction greatly affected the real interest rate and the fluctuation of the house sale price index of the two regions in the short term. Third, result of forecast error variance decomposition shows that the fluctuation of the forecast error of the region occupies a large portion of the sale price of south region, and the effect is gradually decreased as the time difference becomes longer.