재무분석가 보수적 이익예측 특성이 예측정보의 정확성과기업가치에 미치는 영향

This paper examines the effect of conservative analysts on the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecast and the value relevance. Specifically, we examine the forecast accuracy of financial analysts who conservatively estimate future earnings. Also, we examine the effect of conservative analysts on the value relevance. Prior literatures which related to the characteristics of analysts’ forecast suggest that analysts have an incentive to disclose the aggressive earnings forecasts due to their internal or external motivation (Das et al. 1998; Easterwood & Nutt 1999; Feng & McVay 2010; Hugon & Muslu 2010; Lee et al. 2012). For example, financial analysts might provide more optimistic earnings forecasts, in order to increase securities commission, or maximize their compensation (Lee et al. 2005; Lee et al. 2012; Jung 2012; Easterwood & Nutt 1999; Stotz & Von Nitzsch 2005; Baik, Farber, & Petroni 2009; Feng & McVay 2010). That is, financial analysts tend to provide upward earnings forecasts which imply underreaction to bad news and overreaction to good news (Easterwood & Nutt 1999; Hugon & Muslu 2010). However, some analysts are likely to disclose conservative forecasts in behavioral perspectives (Loffler 1998; Easterwood & Nutt 1999; Stotz & Von Nitzsch 2005; Oechssler, Roider, & Schmitz 2009; Hugon & Muslu 2010; Jeong 2012). In addition, participants in capital market might be recognized that conservative forecasts are a low level of information risk (Basu 1997; Sinha & Watts 2001; Watts 2003; LaFond & Watts 2008; Jung & Yoo 2012). That is, conservatism is the one of the accounting methods to reduce information asymmetry. In addition, conservatism plays an important role as ex-ante information in order to reduce information risk through disclosure of conservative accounting information (Basu 1997; Sinha & Watts 2001; Watts 2003; Jung & Yoo 2012). In this context, Hugon and Muslu (2010) suggest the way to measure the analysts’ conservatism. Based on this literature, this paper examines whether relative analysts’ conservatism plays a positive role in enhancing the credibility of analysts’ earnings forecasts and the value relevance. In this study, we examine the effect of conservative analysts in the universe of financial analysts by Fn-Guide data during 2001 to 2013. As a result, we find that analysts’ conservatism decreases the error of analysts’ earnings forecasts. It implies that the accuracy of conservative forecasting might be improved by under-reacting to good news and over-reacting to bad news. That is, analysts who produce less aggressive information should be more accurate because conservative forecasting reduces the inefficiency of optimistic bias generally found in prior papers (Das et al. 1998; Easterwood & Nutt 1999; Jung 2012). Also, we find that conservative analysts have positively increase the value relevance rather than the financial analysts with less conservatism. The results of this paper can be interpreted that the conservative analysts behave more efficient forecasts by reducing the information asymmetry between analysts and market participants. This paper provides insight to the literature on the behavior of conservative forecasting by showing the building precise reputation for conservatism after eliminating the impact of managerial opportunistic behavior. In other words, conservative analyst measure would be meaningful by designing the forecast revision compared preceding or succeeding revision from neighboring analysts before actual earnings was reported. Finally, the results of value relevance are heightened for investors with more conservative analysts.