전문가판단을 활용한 신상품 수요예측 모형: 소비자를 대상으로 한 방법과의 비교

Forecasting the sales of new product was very important issue in marketing. Because of the success percent was not high. it was the scholarly common opinion the failure of new product about 80-90 percent. And now, it is consistent and important issues of marketing research(section). Generally speaking, making the predictive model about the established product can explain to find the other variables related to the current research variable. But forecasting the new product was difficult to explain it because there was not the previously sales data set. this study had the main aim to check the predictive force about concept test. Additionally, the other method of new product's success or failure could use the expert evaluation method. Therefore, throughout expert evaluation and consumer's concept test were crucial to predict the new product success or not. Distribution industry marketer was also important to invent new product. but it was very different from the manufacturing section in itself. Owing to the unique distribution section was previously get the manufacturing goods quality and selected the best item among the gathering merchandise. In other words. distribution or channel's strategy was so passive compared to manufacturing section. TV homeshopping channel was the first and foremost section of distribution industry. there were a variety of characteristics on the TV homeshopping channel. We must know these nature and trait. The first, it is selling the real time and then gets the rapid feedback to sales of goods. the second, And there was no competitive factors(for example, rival company’s promotional activities and advertising, seasonal marketing etc.) compared to the traditional distribution channels. the third, it cost so high managing the market survey. and there were so many kinds of homeshopping goods. it was no more time to review and check the market and consumer data. Like this situation, you had better adapt the method of expert method. and the typical expert method was the in-house experts. And other expert methods were the subjective estimation, using the analogy, consumer-based date etc. Subjective estimation was applying to the function, demand of the new product before launching of new product. This method was treated as collecting the data related to technician and engineer, marketer, other field experts. and its methods included Delphi method, Analytic Hierarchy Process, MIT(Management Judgment Test). The second method was using the analogy technique. It analyzed the similar product category which we must investigate the present, new product without the previous data. And its method was compared with the serial data considering the developing pattern or special situation of past sales record. The third method was the consumer-based data. Using the method, we found the correlation between product sales volume and the preference of consumer before launching the product. and if test market was, it predicted the demand of the real sales volumes connecting to previous test market data. We used the input data of this model based on the purchasing intention of concept test and evaluation of in-house experts. Concept test means the technique and skill related to linguistics and pictures, use situation. Additionally, we utilized the method measuring the judgement of expert. If launching the new product, it was essential to test the new product, do the campaign. The typical expert method was the MJT(Management Judgment Test). MJT's method completed before screening the final concept of new product. Compared to other research tools, it could execute the low cost. When doing the MJT, Various experts must evaluate separately, could not brainstorm one another before publishing the result of the final product evaluation. In generally, MJT method was apply to the convey the advertising or new product concept. We were asking the purchasing intention to consumer opinion of new product by online survey. and then combined to real sales data after finishing TV Homeshopping broadcasting. And then we were asking 10 -house experts combined the successful possibility of new product. First of all, we must be very careful of this viewpoint. these data was not individual level but aggregation level. In this study, we made the forecasting model based on the sales of 98 products sold on the Korea TV home shopping channel. It was possible to check its real time sales volume on home shopping channel. We developed two models based on 500-600 consumer’s data(concept test). And the same product volume(8 products sold on the Korea TV home shopping channel), Forecasting accuracy of the sales response model from consumer data versus from management judgment was compared. It was found that the consumer-based forecasting model was more accurate than the judgment-based but the difference was not too big. In general, consumer based-method cost too much and took long survey hours. If you utilize the small number of in-house experts, there will be so many advantages in cost and time. Further the sensitive information such new product development would be kept inside the company. It could be an alternative method in case the consumer data is not feasible because judgment-based method was more cost-efficient and time-saving method