중국의 수입대체와 생산기지 이전이 한국의 중간재 대중수출에 미치는 효과의 측정

China’s rapid industrial upgrading causes an import substitution or on-shoring of once imported intermediate goods while rapid rising of China’s production costs causes the off-shoring of the labor intensive export processing industries once it hosted. Both structural changes would lead a decline of Korean export of intermediate goods into China which happened after 2011. This study suggests some indexes to capture those structural changes in China using UN comtrade database. It also measures the effects of those changes on the export of Korean intermediate goods into China. Especially, it suggests and applies a new index of RRCA which supposed to measure the changes of China’s relative advantages as the export bases of certain items which need the import of certain foreign intermediate goods. According to panel regressions on the Korean exports of 159 major intermediate goods into China during 2011∼2014 period, the on-shoring and off-shoring in China’s industries seems to cause the declines of the those exports as expected. And the declines of China’s relative advantages as the export bases and the related off-shoring movements are contributing more on the decline of Korean intermediate goods’ exports into China than the on-shoring effects.