주택 가격지수 선물제도 도입의 필요성과 활용방안에 대한 고찰

The Anti-speculation policies can be classified roughly into three types such as monetary policy, fiscal tools and limits on LTV and DTI. Firstly, an increase in the policy rate to suppress speculation could affect the entire economy and entail substantial costs. If the expected return on real estate is much higher than what can be affected by the policy, the speculators could be little affected. The effectiveness of the policy rate differs on the structure of the mortgage market. Secondly, the major fiscal tools to control speculation are taxes on real estate. Transaction taxes don’t seem to have a definite relationship with the change of house price in comparison with foreign cases. Property taxes affect to reduce housing booms a little. There are some problems using a property taxes to reduce speculative activity in real estate. Local tax law should be changed, which means it is hard to use this tool in an appropriate moment and municipalities would face pressure to reduce taxes. It is hard to use mortgage interest tax deductibility as a tool to suppress speculation periodically. Thirdly, a limit on LTV and DTI will reduce the risks associated with declines in real estate market, but the effectiveness of this tools could be limited when lenders find the ways to circumvent the restrictions. So, Introducing a real estate price index can help limit speculation in real estate market. Index futures for the property market could help take the speculators away from real property market because they prefer liquidity, low transaction cost trading conveniences and so on. It can also hedge against the price risk of property and give information about future property price and the expected trend. Using it, small or medium size investor can invest in property market. There's no limits to supply of real estate, so it could fulfill an excess demand. As the concept of underlying asset that is the object of derivatives is said broadly under the Capital Market Promotion Act of Korea, the Housing Price Index Futures can be included and traded. To trade it, a fair and representative methodology of calculating the housing price index must be established. It should be supported by the participants to acquire trust in the market before introducing it. It will bring good benefits and social welfare if more institutional and individual investors invest it.