주택담보대출의 조기상환행태 분석: 안심전환대출 출시 이후의 이상현상을 중심으로

The Safe Conversion Loan, launched in March 2015, is a policy financial instrument that switches short-term floating-rate mortgages to longer-term fixed-rate mortgages. After the launch of the product, there is evidence that the prepayment behavior of households has changed. Unlike traditional behavior seen in the past, the prepayment rate has decreased in spite of rising housing prices, falling market interest rates, and decreasing mortgage delinquency rates. Using a unique pool-level dataset, this study empirically analyzes mortgage prepayment behavior of households and verifies whether structural changes have actually occurred. We also test other economic variables that could explain prepayment rates and select variables with high explanatory and predictive power. The study leads to the following findings. First, the trend change in prepayment rates is a short-term phenomenon resulting from the launch of policy financial products, and the impact will decrease over time. Second, the impact of changes in housing prices on prepayment behavior has weakened. This can be interpreted as a decrease in the effect of housing price factors on prepayment. Third, household interest in prepayment has increased since the launch of the Safe Conversion Loan. As such, prepayment behavior has become more sensitive to changes in mortgage rates, but the impact of rate changes will be limited given current interest rate levels and hawkish trends. Fourth, the results confirm that the index of household interest in prepayment using search frequency has actual explanatory and predictive power.