Impact of Shale Oil Supply Shock on US Crude Oil and Gasoline Prices

This paper examines the effect of shale oil production on US energy market. According to an efficient market hypothesis, the increasing crude oil supply due to shale oil production affects gasoline supply and lowers gasoline prices. However, previous studies have explained that shale oil supply shock does not extend to gasoline. Therefore, we estimate the effect of shale oil supply on oil price and gasoline price using VECM. The result of the analysis, in the United States, since the crude oil supply and inventory increase due to increasing shale oil production and crude oil export ban, the effect of shale oil for oil prices has increased. In addition, as shale oil production increased, the effect of gasoline inventory for gasoline prices decreases and the impact of self-shock on gasoline prices increases. In other words, shale oil affects the oil prices but does not affect the gasoline prices.