‘위험한 범죄자’와 현대 위험관리체제의 성격 : 재범위험성 평가의 발전과 역설적 효과

In the United States, the 1960s and 1970s witnessed conflicts and controversies around the civil commitment of the mentally disordered, especially in relation to the standard of dangerousness. Civil rights advocates raised criticism that involuntary commitment for the purpose of preventing dangerousness infringed on civil rights and that inaccurate prediction of dangerousness resulted in unacceptable civil rights violations. The debates on the prediction of dangerousness posed problems with which researchers of risk assessment had to grapple around the turn of the 1980s. Violence risk studies began to develop in the aftermath of controversies around psychiatric dangerousness prediction, by putting forth an actuarial approach to risk assessment as a way of balancing public safety and civil rights. Actuarial risk assessment tools that began to be developed since the 1980s were put to use in the context of sex offender risk management in the 1990s, where they had paradoxical effects of enabling lengthened surveillance and regulation and of expanding the targets to cast wide nets to capture a broad range of dangers.