집단 내 개인의 영향력 및 책임감이 주관적 예측 조정에 미치는 영향

While quantitative forecasting methods are readily available, many forecasting processes in practice partly rely on human judgment. Especially, a final forecast is made after making judgmental adjustments using advice generated by ICT (Information and Communication Technologies). This research examines how an individual’s power and accountability in a group influence judgmental adjustment behavior. We propose that greater power will increase the degree of judgmental adjustment, and this effect is mediated by confidence in one’s judgmental forecast. In addition, we suggest that accountability will decrease judgmental adjustment even if one has great power because accountability will moderate the effect of power on confidence. We test our hypotheses using two experiments. In the first experiment, we found a negative relationship between power and the degree of forecast adjustment. This relationship is mediated by the confidence level of individuals. In the second experiment, we found that accountability lowers confidence. This paper provides insights on how the structure of the forecasting group should be managed by designing work roles and responsibilities to mitigate the negative effects from adjustment behavior. The paper concludes with a discussion on the study’s limitations and scope for future research.