유형별 이익조정이 재무분석가의 장기예측치 발표에 미치는 차별적 영향

The purpose of this study is to examine whether the likelihood of financial analysts’ long－term forecast is differentially affected by real and accrual－based earnings management. Prior studies document that, compared to accrual－based earnings management, the negative effect of real earnings management on long－term business performance is remarkable. This aspect of real earnings management would lead analysts reluctant to provide long－term forecasts for firms engaged in large real earnings management. The results are as follows. First, the more real earnings management is performed, the less analysts announce long－term forecasts, however, we cannot find the significant relationship between accrual－based earnings management and the likelihood of long－term forecasts of analysts. Second, analysts provide pessimistic long－term forecasts for real earnings management. Our findings imply that financial analysts have more difficulties in figuring out the implication of real earnings management than accrual－based earnings management when producing long－term forecasts.