신용보증의 중소기업 일자리창출 및 유지효과

In this study, we analyze the effect of credit guarantees on both creating jobs and avoiding laying off employees of small businesses. The empirical results show that both guarantees and the guarantee scale have significant and instantaneous effects on creating jobs and keeping employees. The estimated rate of employment growth is from 1.6 to 2.0 percent after one-year guarantee and 3.0 to 3.3 percent after two-year guarantee. We also investigate the keeping-employees effect of credit guarantees. Once the amount of credit guarantees is greater than four million won, we find that there is a significant positive effect of credit guarantees on employment growth. Based on the time periods and guarantee amounts, the maintenance effect on job creation is less likely to last long. Finally, we find that the estimated average elasticity of employment, which measures the employment effect per unit of guarantee amounts, is 0.121 percent during 2005-2012. This implies that an additional guarantee of 100 million won yields about 0.25 additional hires. We conclude that the credit guarantee policy has the significant and immediate effects on creating employment and keeping employees, and credit guarantees need to be much more effectively implemented for the sake of employment creation and maintenance.