숙박산업의 소비지출에 관한 실증연구 : 인구고령화를 중심으로

This paper analyzes the impacts of population aging on accommodation service consumption based on the auto-regressive distributed lag (ADL) model. By estimating accommodation service consumption function, the population structure variables, age-specific income, price, and interest rate elasticities, were derived and the effects of population aging on accommodation service consumption were investigated. Quarterly data from 1990∽2016 for the corresponding variables in regression were used for estimation. Income elasticities were estimated to be the highest value of 1.54 in the upper sixties, 1.26 in the lower thirties, 1.18 in the fifties, and the lowest value of 0.87 in the forties. These findings imply population aging will function as a declining factor in accommodation service industry. In price elasticities, the upper sixties and the lower thirties showed relatively high values of 2.33 and 2.05 respectively. In contrast, the fifties and forties showed relatively low values of 1.45 and 0.70 respectively. Interest rate was proven to have a negative relation to accommodation service consumption. Its elasticities were found to be the highest value of 0.73 for the upper sixties and the lowest value of 0.42 for the lower thirties. Population aging affects accommodation service consumption negatively. Thus Accelerating trend of population aging will be a detrimental factor to the accommodation industry. In the seasonal consumption effects, summer showed the highest while fall was the lowest. Faced with population aging, this study can be a useful tool in implementing policy instruments in the accommodation industry.