주택담보대출규제가 주택가격에영향을 미치는 경로 분석

In this study, we, first, try to investigate the relationship between mortgage loans and housing prices in Korea. Based on this result, we further examine the impact of the changes in mortgage regulation on mortgage loans and housing prices, so that we could trace the path of the impact. The two most typical type of mortgage regulations are the Loan to Value (LTV) and the Debt to Income (DTI). In Korea, the LTV limit is higher and DIT limit is lower than other major countries. Generally, LTV regulation is used for limiting the risk of collapse of the collateral value to borrowers, so that it helps to keep the soundness of financial institutions. DTI measure also helps to protect the soundness of financial institutions by restricting the risk of borrowers’ income shock. However, despite their original purpose of mortgage regulations, people believe that these regulations are used to control the housing price in Korea. In this regard, we are motivated to analyze the impact channel of mortgage regulations, LTV and DTI, on housing prices. For analyzing the effect of mortgage regulations on mortgage amount and house price, first, we test cointegration relation between the amount of mortgage loan and housing price. Then, we extend our analysis to examine the long-run and short-run relationship between the two variables by applying the VECM model and Granger Causality test. The results show that the two variables, the amount of mortgage and housing price, have a stable relation in the long-run. Based on the results, we construct panel data set in order to analyze the effect of the mortgage regulation change (LTV and DTI) on mortgage itself and housing price and examine whether there exist changes in mortgage response before and after the application of revised regulation. According to the analysis, the impact of changes in mortgage regulation on the mortgage amount is not so dominant, while the impact on housing price is quite significant. The results imply that the regulation change had an indirect impact on housing price, rather than through the originally intended channel—which was to limit the supply of mortgage loans and thereby change the demand for housing and its price.