경영자의 과신성향이 재무분석가의 이익 예측에 미치는 영향

[Purpose]This study investigates the effect of managerial overconfidence on the analysts’ earnings forecasts. If the analyst naively react to the information that overconfident managers provide, the earnings forecast accuracy will decrease. But if the analyst perceive the risk of the forecast concerning the overconfident manager, the analyst will forecast earnings carefully and the earnings forecast accuracy will increase. [Methodology]The sample of this study covers firms from year 2010 to 2017 listed in either the KOSPI or KOSDAQ markets. The final sample includes 3,992 firm－years. I use Multivariate regression analysis to test the hypothesis. [Findings]The empirical result shows that the managerial overconfidence has a significant and positive relationship with analysts’ earnings forecasts accuracy. This means the analyst perceive the risk of forecast concerning overconfident managers’ negative performance, and forecast earnings with more care and more information enhancing the forecast accuracy. The additional analysis result shows that the managerial overconfidence has a significant and negative relationship with analysts’ forecast error. [Implication]The results of the study suggest the analyst play the role of monitoring the manager as outside stakeholder, as well as providing the forecast information for the investor as information agent. And this study found new factor, management characteristics, influencing analyst earnings’ forecasts.