전매제한 규제강화가 아파트가격에 미치는 영향 - 11.3 부동산대책을 중심으로 -

On November 3, 2016, a real estate policy was implemented to alleviate the overheated housing subscription market in some areas such as Seoul and Gyeonggi Province. The regulatory housing policy included the reinforcement of the resale period limitation, which does not allow housing trade until the house is completed in four Gangnam Gus (Districts) and Gwacheon. This study analyzed the effects of the policy on the price of apartments in the existing housing market. Specifically, regions were classified according to resale trade volume and regulation intensity, and the effects of the regulatory policy on the apartment price were estimated by using the Difference-in-Differences method, which is one of the panel fixed effect models. The analysis showed that the regulation reinforcement was helpful in easing the market overheating at the four Gangnam Gus, regions with the greatest volume of resale volume and the toughest regulation of restricting the resale period to before the registration of ownership transfer. On the other hand, the influence of the regulation was not found in other Seoul Gus or Seongnam city, which had the large volume of resale trade, but the relatively lax regulation of 1.6-year resale restriction. The results can be interpreted in such a way that the regulatory policy of limiting the resale period can help ease the overheating market of the existing housing in case the regulation is reinforced in a region with a large volume of resale trade.