K리그 구단 위한 날씨파생 상품의 적정 이론가격 산정

The purpose of this study was to identify first the affect of weather on the number of spectators for professional soccer games and then to determine the appropriate price for a weather derivative for the pertinent weather factor so that professional soccer teams may actively manage weather risks. The subjects included 2,135 K League games held in 17 venues between 2008 and 2017, and data included game related data from the Korean Football Association and weather related data from the Korea Meteorological Administration. Analysis included descriptive analysis, regression analysis, calculation using the Wang transform model and Monte Carlo simulation, and the results are as follows: First, not only temperature, precipitation, wind velocity, humidity, sand dust affect number of spectators, the affect of the same weather factor differs according to time before game start. Second, the affect of weather differ according to venue, but affect of temperature and precipitation is relatively higher such that temperature is an appropriate asset for a weather derivative. Third, for Incheon Stadium which is located in a metropolitan area and has a relatively large number of spectators, the number is predicted to reduce by 58% if the temperature is within 15-20 degrees, and it probability of happening was calculated to be 18.14%. By applying a 12000won ticket price, appropriate compensation was calculated at 6,536,810won. So upon considering the soccer club’s risk level preference. the appropriate price for temperature based weather derivative was calculated to be annually between 2,970,000won and 5,800,000won.