경기변동에 따른 중소기업의 경영평가 변화에 관한 연구

As low growth is fixed, the performance of SMEs is gradually deteriorating. Especially, in the case of SMEs, the ratio of indirect loans through bank loans is higher than direct financing such as issuance of corporate bonds. Therefore, they are more sensitive to the negative effects of external impacts. Accordingly, the interest of policy authorities on the improvement of internal efficiency and the degree of default risk of SMEs is increasing. The significance of this study is here. From 2009 to 2017, we calculated financial scores and efficiency scores for SMEs with financial data for 9 consecutive years and conducted sensitivity analysis on financial scores in the event of economic deterioration. The results of the study are summarized as follows. If the economic situation deteriorates worse than it is now and the future economy deteriorates to the level of the European debt crisis in 2012, the financial score of SMEs declines by 0.66pt on average. By region, the financial score of SMEs in Gangwon, Chungcheong, Busan, Gyeonggi, Gwangju, Incheon, Ulsan, Jeju, and Sejong showed a large decline in order. This is due to the fact that the portion of manufacturing industries is lower than average and that the portion of wholesale and retail trade, information and communication industry, and hospitality industry is higher than average. By industry, the decline in the economically sensitive sectors such as hospitality industry, personal service industry, wholesale and retail trade, and information and communication industries have been remarkably large, mainly because the major industry of small businesses and self-employed businesses are concentrated in these areas. Such vulnerable sectors are expected to see increase in the portion of marginal firms when interest rates and operating profit decline, and therefore, aggressive policy responses such as restructuring are needed. Considering the increase in the minimum wage, there is high possibility that the decline in the financial score will become even greater. Hence, it is necessary to prevent the risk of insolvency by strengthening risk management.